Introduction
August 2025 has been an exciting month for the crypto market. Bitcoin has surged close to its all-time highs, and traders are now eyeing a striking technical event: a Bitcoin CME gap around the $117,000–$119,000 range. This gap on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures chart has sparked debates among analysts about whether the price will “fill” it in the coming days.
At the same time, this week will bring several macroeconomic and crypto-specific developments — U.S. inflation data (CPI/PPI), Federal Reserve speeches, Bitcoin spot ETF inflows, and whale on-chain movements — all of which could heavily influence BTC’s short-term price action.
This article dives into:
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The origin, historical patterns, and market expectations for the $117K CME gap.
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Key events that could impact Bitcoin price this week, along with technical analysis.
1. What Is a Bitcoin CME Gap and Why Does It Matter?
CME Bitcoin futures operate on a set weekly schedule, unlike the 24/7 crypto spot market. When spot prices move significantly over the weekend while CME is closed (from Friday close to Sunday night), the futures market opens on Monday at a different price, leaving a gap in the chart — known as a CME gap.
The current gap formed because:
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Over the weekend, spot Bitcoin extended its rally beyond $119,000.
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CME Bitcoin futures closed Friday at a lower level, opening Monday with a sharp jump.
Traders track these gaps because historically, 60%–80% of CME Bitcoin gaps eventually get filled, meaning the price revisits the gap zone before continuing its broader trend.
2. Historical Data: How Often Are CME Gaps Filled?
Analysis from sources like CoinTelegraph and CryptoSlate shows:
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Most gaps close within days or weeks.
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Short-term traders often set limit orders around these gaps, creating liquidity that draws the price back.
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Larger gaps during strong bull runs sometimes remain open for months — or forever — if price momentum keeps pushing higher (known as a “runaway gap”).
For example, a late-2024 CME gap closed within two days, while a mid-2021 gap around $32K remained unfilled for more than a year due to sustained bullish momentum.
3. Will the $117K Gap Be Filled?
Technical factors:
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Strong support sits near $118,000. If broken, the price could quickly revisit the $117,200–116,800 zone.
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The RSI is near overbought levels, signaling possible short-term consolidation.
Market sentiment:
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Analysts like Jelle (via CoinDesk) believe that unless BTC breaks and holds above $123,000, a revisit to the $117K zone is likely in the near term.
Risk scenario:
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If bulls push BTC beyond $125,000 on strong inflows or macro tailwinds, the gap could remain open indefinitely.
4. This Week’s (Aug 12, 2025 Onward) Top 5 Bitcoin Price Drivers
Category | Key Event | Potential Impact |
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Macroeconomic Data | U.S. July CPI (Aug 12) & PPI (Aug 14) | Lower-than-expected inflation → boosts rate-cut bets → bullish for BTC; higher inflation → bearish |
Federal Reserve Policy | Fed speeches, Stephen Miran nomination | Dovish tone supports BTC; hawkish tone pressures risk assets |
Crypto Regulation | New U.S. rule allowing retirement accounts to hold crypto | Could bring more institutional inflows |
ETF Flows | Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting billions in inflows | Continued inflows strengthen BTC’s price floor |
On-chain Activity | Whale transfers, miner selling patterns | Large sell-offs can pressure BTC short term; accumulation signals support |

5. Bitcoin Technical Analysis
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Support levels: $118,000 → $117,000 zone
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Resistance levels: $120,700 → $123,200 (previous high)
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Indicators: BTC trades above its 50-day moving average; RSI near overbought but not extreme; breakout above $123,200 could trigger a rally toward $125,000+.
Conclusion
The $117K Bitcoin CME gap is more than a chart anomaly — it reflects the interplay between market psychology, technical trading, and liquidity. This week’s macro events and crypto-specific developments will be crucial in determining whether BTC revisits that zone or powers higher into uncharted territory.
For traders, the key is to monitor these price levels, track macro announcements, and manage risk appropriately in what could be a volatile trading week.
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