Halving and Emissions: How Coin Supply Schedules Reshape Mining ROI (Deep Research)

Executive Summary (For Busy Readers)

• Halving does not “kill” miners — it restructures them.

• The true order of importance for mining ROI is:
  Price trend ＞ Electricity cost ＞ Hardware efficiency ＞ Reward schedule

• Strong deflation (Bitcoin) creates high volatility and brutal miner淘汰

• Moderate emission cuts (ETC) produce smoother cash flow and favor mid-size miners

• No halving (Dogecoin) turns mining into a pure price speculation game

Halving is not a technical event — it is a supply-side economic shock.

1. What Is Halving? A Supply-Side Shock to Mining

Halving means one thing:
the network suddenly cuts the miner’s “salary” in half.

In Bitcoin’s case:

• Every ~210,000 blocks (~4 years)

• Block rewards are cut by 50%

• New coin issuance instantly drops by 50%

For miners:

Same machines. Same electricity.
Half the base revenue.

This is not subtle — it is one of the most aggressive monetary policies in modern finance.

2. What Really Happened After Each Bitcoin Halving?

2012 – The First Halving

Reward: 50 → 25 BTC
Price: ~$12 → ~$1,000 (12 months later)

• GPU & early miners saw absurd returns

• ROI measured in weeks

• This was a once-in-history monetary event

➡️ A mythological profit era that will never repeat

2016 – The Second Halving

Reward: 25 → 12.5 BTC
Price: ~$650 → ~$19,000

• ASIC mining became mandatory

• Electricity became the profit killer

• ROI stretched to 6–12 months

➡️ The birth of industrial-scale mining

2020 – The Third Halving

Reward: 12.5 → 6.25 BTC
Price: ~$9,000 → ~$69,000

• Old machines were wiped out

• Profit depended entirely on price going up

• ROI: 12–18 months

➡️ Halving + bull market = survival
Halving + bear market = death

2024 – The Fourth Halving

Reward: 6.25 → 3.125 BTC

Immediate effects:

• Hashrate drops

• High-cost miners shut down

Then:

• Difficulty falls

• Remaining miners gain higher share

Realistic ROI Model

➡️ Halving does not cause instant losses — it stretches ROI.

3. What Miners Actually Earn From

Most miners think they earn from block rewards.
That is already becoming wrong.

1) Block Rewards

• Declining forever

• Goes to zero around 2140

2) Transaction Fees

• Grow during congestion and bull markets

• Can reach 20–40% of miner income

➡️ The miner of the future is not a “coin printer”
They are a settlement infrastructure provider.

4. Supply Schedules Change Everything

Bitcoin & Litecoin: Survival Cycles

• Sudden income shock

• Requires:

  • Ultra-cheap power

  • Frequent hardware upgrades

  • Deep capital reserves

Dogecoin: A Price Casino

• Infinite rewards

• ROI depends only on:

  • Social hype

  • Price speculation

When DOGE falls, miners get crushed.

Ethereum Classic (ETC): Industrial-Grade Design

• Rewards don’t collapse

• They decline slowly (~20%)

This allows:

• Predictable planning

• Capital budgeting

• Stable operations

5. ETC vs BTC in 2026

➡️ BTC is a gladiator arena.
ETC is a factory.

6. Who Survives the Next 20 Years?

Winning Miners:

• Power below $0.05/kWh

• Upgrade machines continuously

• Mine multiple coins

• Plan by halving cycles, not daily ROI

Losing Miners:

• High electricity

• Short-term thinking

• No difficulty modeling

• Treat halving as a surprise

Final Truth

Halving is not the end of mining.
It is the filter.

The survivors are not those with the most machines —
but those with the lowest cost, strongest balance sheet, and clearest long-term plan.

In the next decade, mining will stop being a gamble
and become what it was always meant to be:

A capital-intensive, energy-driven, infrastructure business.