High Conviction: ETH Set to Surge 160%, Solana Presents Sentiment Oppo

Ether a ‘top conviction pick’ that’s set to go on mammoth 160% rally

Ethereum (ETH) may be poised for a massive surge before the end of 2025 — but analysts remain divided on whether a rally to $6,500 is truly in the cards or if a deeper correction is looming instead.

Ethereum Price Could Hit $6,500 by Year-End, Says Tesseract CEO

James Harris, CEO of crypto yield generation firm Tesseract, has made a bold prediction: Ethereum will climb 160% from its current price of $2,570 to reach $6,500 by the end of 2025.

“We forecast ETH at $6,500 by end-2025, assuming continued growth in ETH staking participation, higher gas consumption from layer 2 applications, and no significant regulatory headwinds specific to Ethereum,” Harris told Cointelegraph Magazine.

“Ethereum is one of our top conviction picks among large-caps.”

He cites the over $1 billion in net inflows into U.S. spot Ether ETFs in June and the recent Pectra hard fork as bullish catalysts.

“The Pectra upgrade has improved layer 2 scaling solutions, fueling ecosystem growth,” he added.
“With healthy institutional inflows and its status as the most staked and utilized digital asset, Ethereum is on track for a strong second half of the year.”

10x Research Sees ETH Falling to $2,300 by Year-End

Not everyone shares Harris' optimism. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, offered a more cautious view.

“We hold a moderately bullish outlook for crypto this month, driven largely by strong post-July 4 seasonality that could lift Ethereum toward $2,800 in the short term,” Thielen said.

“However, we believe the ongoing lack of user activity remains a structural overhang for ETH, and the case for treasury adoption is far weaker than it is for Bitcoin.”

Thielen maintains a bearish year-end target of $2,300 for ETH, citing weak adoption, low activity, and stronger institutional preference for Bitcoin.

“Potential stablecoin adoption built on Ethereum infrastructure could alter this narrative,” he acknowledged.
“But for now, we continue to favor Bitcoin as the higher-conviction play.”

Bitcoin’s ATH Within Reach? Momentum Suggests New Highs in July

James Toledano, COO of Unity Wallet, believes Bitcoin is on the verge of a new all-time high (ATH), surpassing the current record of $111,970.

“My strong sense, and that is all it is, based on current momentum, is that Bitcoin has the potential to reach a new all-time high by the end of July.”

With Bitcoin trading at $108,190 at the time of publication, it would only require a 3.5% gain to break the ATH and an 11.15% rally to hit the $120K mark — an outcome Toledano views as “very optimistic, but possible.”

Toledano cites:

Nearly $5 billion in net inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs over the past 15 trading days
Bitcoin’s stability during recent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran

However, caution remains warranted. Trader Daan Crypto Trades warns that falling back below the $108,000 level could shift momentum:

“You don’t want to see this deviate back below $108K again at this point,” he emphasized.

Dogecoin Under Pressure: 50% Drop Still on the Table

Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at onchain options protocol Derive, says Dogecoin (DOGE) may be in for a sharp decline, with downside risk toward $0.085 — a 50% drop from its current price of $0.17.

“Short term, I am quite bearish,” Dawson said.
“Meme tokens like DOGE tend to underperform in macro-driven markets. Persistent inflation and diminishing hopes for a Fed rate cut are weighing heavily on speculative assets.”

Other red flags for DOGE include:

A bearish tilt in the options market, with put options priced significantly higher than calls
Fading retail interest, as Google search trends for DOGE have fallen sharply since February

“Low interest often correlates with flat or negative price action for DOGE,” Dawson explained.
“Unless speculative hype returns, the environment remains unfavorable.”

Still, he left room for a rebound:

“DOGE could ride a wave back into speculative favor — it has done so many times before.”

Derivatives Market: Cautious Optimism for Bitcoin, Uncertainty for Ether

Nick Forster, founder of Derive, provided insight into how traders are pricing risk through futures:

Bitcoin has a 40% chance of breaking $111,970 by the end of July
15% chance of reaching $115,000
13% chance of falling below $100,000 (increased risk if geopolitical tensions reignite or the Fed raises rates — both considered unlikely)

As for Ethereum:

12% chance of surpassing $3,000 by July 31
35% chance of holding above $2,700
12% chance of reaching $3,500 by end of September

Sentiment Watch: Bitcoin Euphoria Could Signal Trouble, Solana ‘Sneaky Buy’?

Analyst Brian Q from Santiment warns that Bitcoin sentiment has reached euphoric levels, which historically precede short-term corrections:

“Social media sentiment for Bitcoin is overwhelmingly bullish, hitting a four-week high. Extreme greed is often a signal to become more defensive.”

In contrast, Solana (SOL), currently trading at $152 — down 48% from its January peak of $293 — is flying under the radar.

“This lack of hype could be an opportunity,” said Brian Q.
“A fundamentally strong project with muted chatter often precedes a stealth rally.”

Prediction Markets: Bitcoin Poised for New Highs, ETH and SOL Lagging

According to Polymarket:

Bitcoin has a 69% chance of hitting a new ATH by July 31
Ethereum has a 22% chance of surpassing its ATH of $4,878 in 2025
Solana has a 22% chance of breaking past $293 by year-end, down 5% from last month
XRP’s odds have also declined, now at 25%

“Historically, DOGE tends to lag behind BTC and ETH rallies, but when meme momentum returns, it can spike violently,” one analyst noted.

Takeaway

While institutional flows and upgrades like Pectra are boosting long-term Ethereum sentiment, short-term user activity remains a concern. Bitcoin’s momentum continues, but sentiment may be overheating. Meme coins like DOGE could suffer unless market exuberance returns.

For diversified positioning, investors may consider combining large-caps like BTC and ETH with under-the-radar assets like SOL — while keeping an eye on sentiment metrics and macro signals.